At the same time the isopleths of SOT will show the variation in the potential for extreme values and give an increasing definition of the risk area (if there is one!). precipitation), a mean over a period (e.g. Select and view ECMWF ensemble charts. Very high uncertainty illustrated by EFI and SOT. Colours indicate the quintile90 temperature ranges of the M-climate where only one in 10 occasions have reached greater values than shown (i.e. Importantly, for maximum wind gusts and maximum and minimum 2m temperature, the 6 hourly values used themselves represent extrema within the preceding 6 hours (diagnosed by interrogating the ENS at every time step). (EFI in seasonal forecasts is not available operationally). wind gust). wind gust). Each 24-hour period variable is worked out as a post-processed value based on four 6-hourly forecast time step values (e.g. Some customers may require an indication of very high temperatures even if at a low probability. The actual SOT values show how extreme the top 10% of ENS forecast are.Chart A (from a forecast 6 days ahead of the event) shows fragmented areas where SOT>0 (i.e. Chart D (from a forecast 0 days ahead of the event) shows the areas of SOT>0 and EFI>0.5 are tightly defined, giving confidence to the user in pinpointing the areas at risk. Fig8.1.4.16: An example of the use of EFI and SOT during the period leading up to 05-06 September 2018. These are: Fig8.1.4.12:The global “anomalous weather” or “interactive EFI” chart from 00UTC 09 May 2017 between T+48 and T+72 hours. a few ENS members show an extreme event) so a very severe weather event is possible. a mean over a 00-24UTC period is a mean of the 06-12-18 and the ending 00UTC fields). EFI>0.5 is coloured (see scales). These are the latest ECMWF model weather charts at Metcheck. On the right are shown the corresponding EFI values.
Some ENS members show rainfall totals much greater than M-climate maxima - the degree to which these totals exceed the M-climate maximum is not taken account of in the EFI calculation, but is used directly in calculating SOT.
Accessibility Privacy Terms of use Contact us Privacy Terms of use Contact us Accessibility; Privacy; Terms of use; Contact us The CDF shows some ENS members indicating temperature values above M-climate maximum and some below M-climate minimum and thus the SOT will show values for both the warm and cold tails. The development and evolution of EFI and SOT over a sequence of charts can give an early insight into the likelihood of occurrence of out-of-the-ordinary weather and the confidence that may be assigned to developments. The Shift of Tails (SOT) index is shown by black contours (for 0, 1, 2, 5, 8).
Pressure, temperature and thickness charts updated twice daily using data from the 00z and 12z runs. Pressure, temperature and thickness charts updated twice daily using data from the 00z and 12z runs. The steep and consistent mean temperature CDF indicates high confidence in a forecast of near normal temperatures around 16°C.
SOT is greater than 0 if at least 10% of ENS members forecast an extreme event. The steep CDF indicates high confidence in a forecast of about 2°C below normal temperature. {"serverDuration": 171, "requestCorrelationId": "9fd2ca7fbe278a2d"}, 8 ENS Products - What they are and how to use them, Extreme Forecast Index - EFI, and Shift of Tails - SOT. precipitation), a mean over a period (e.g. However, generally low EFI values (<0.5) shows the majority of ENS members do not indicate an unusual event (even though a few do). Clickable charts are available showing the geographical distribution of the EFI of the principal weather parameters: maximum wind gust, 24hr precipitation and 2m temperature, overlaid with the ensemble mean of the MSLP field.
Fig8.1.4.15: EFI and SOT chart valid 22-23 July 2012 (T+156-180) from ENS data time 15 July 2012, with associated CDF and meteogram with M-climate for the marked position. EFI values are more widely >0.8 (dark orange) so confidence of at least a severe event is growing (for those areas). Updated/Amended 30/12/19 - Minor changes. The airmasses are clearly very different as there is a large positive EFI indicative of high temperatures over eastern Europe and a large negative EFI indicative of low temperatures over western Europe.
The EFI is shown by colours given by the scale above each chart (±0.3 is shown by the dashed coloured contours). mean 2m temperature or mean wind) or an extremum (maximum or minimum) over that period (e.g. Isopleths are for values of 0,1,2,5,8. Attached to each grid point of the global EFI charts there is a CDF diagram for each of the EFI parameters, with information on M-climate at the grid point (always shown for the lead time 24-48h) and the available forecast distributions (all valid for the given day, but coming from different, consecutive ENS runs, so the lead times vary). For a location chosen by the probe tool on ecCharts or by selection of a widget on the dashboard: Fig8.1.4.13: Examples of EFIs and CDFs from a series of ENS runs for Valetta valid for 30 Mar 2018. The chart shows on only 1 in 10 occasions are mean temperatures likely to be above 15°C-20°C in parts of southern Italy and Sicily. Other Models GFS; Netwx-SR; Netwx-MR; GFS Parallel; ECMWF; Met-Office; Ensembles; GEM; Fax; Comparison; Extra; GFS; Netwx-SR; Netwx-MR; Ensembles; GFS Para Extra; 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 Animate. Each are valid for the periods 0000-24UTC in the days shown. A high value of SOT shows how extreme the lower 10% ENS results are. At longer lead-times the number of such members may be quite low. The CDF shows consistency between the stronger gust forecasts in last two ENS results. Fig8.1.4.14B: CDF and associated EFI for Po Valley area. ENS is designed to give an assessment of uncertainty, but occasionally the uncertainty becomes very large with additionally potential for very high or low forecast values to occur. Chart C (from a forecast 2 days ahead of the event) shows the areas of SOT>0 and EFI>0.5 are better defined indicating the area most at risk to severe weather. The period selected is under user control. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast © ECMWF. This chart highlights areas where there is a significant difference between the ensemble forecast (ENS) distribution and the model climate (M-climate) distribution. There is a strong and consistent negative EFI for temperature. Evaluate Confluence today. The evolution of this sequence illustrates the ability of EFI and SOT charts to allow early indication the risk of severe weather (SOT), with an indication of changes in confidence and definition of the area at risk (EFI). There is a consistently high and increasing EFI for wind (reaching 86%) which is sufficient for forecasting a significant and possibly extreme wind event. Fig8.1.4.17: Observed rainfall totals include some above 50mm/24hr and one above 100mm/24hr over eastern Canada during the period 05/12UTC to 06/12UTC September 2018. The CDF traces are steep and very similar over last four forecast runs and imply high confidence in out of the ordinary cold mean temperatures about 8°C below normal. Our range of forecast products present key aspects of the forecast evolution and the associated uncertainty to address different user requirements.
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